Service Plays Friday 12/3/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

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I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL NCAAF

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 3
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (11/30)
Game 305-306: Illinois at Fresno State (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 93.742; Fresno State 84.996
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Illinois by 5; 57
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-5); Under

Game 307-308: Miami (OH) vs. Northern Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 71.984; Northern Illinois 97.904
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 26; 51
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 17; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-17); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI CFB

Friday, December 3, 2010
FBS Non-Conference
Illinois 38, FRESNO STATE 36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SB Professor Original

Friday's NCAAF Pick:
Fresno State +6*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Best NCAAFB Bets

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Miami-OH Redhawks (+17.5, 55)

The 25th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies will try and complete a perfect run through the conference schedule when they take on the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) Championship game at Ford Field in Detroit Friday night on ESPN2.

The Huskies swept through the West Division of the MAC without a defeat, completing their perfect season with a, 71-3, trouncing of Eastern Michigan last Friday. Northern Illinois was rewarded for their strong season on Sunday when the BCS inserted them at No. 25 in the latest rankings, the first time a team from the MAC has been ranked in the BCS since Ball State spent a week in the rankings in 2008.

The Miami Redhawks finished the year with a four-game winning streak, but they didn’t clinch the East Division’s bid into the MAC title game until late last Friday when Ohio was upset by Kent State in the season finale. Miami took care of business on their end with a, 23-3, victory over Temple on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, setting the stage for an appearance in the game at Ford Field when Ohio lost three days later.

The oddsmakers out in Las Vegas opened the MAC Championship game with Northern Illinois as big 14.5-point favorites, but the point spread quickly shot up to 17-points as everyone and their brother has wagered on the Huskies during the early action.

The over/under total has also seen its share of line movement, opening at 52.5 and moving up to its current number of 54 after just a few hours of wagering at the window.

The lopsided point spread is directly related to the offense involved in this game, with a Huskies unit who has averaged 65 points per game the last three weeks and over 450 yards per game all season long getting the most attention.

Northern Illinois enjoys one of the best quarterback-running back duos in the country in regards to running the spread-option offense, with Chandler Harnish (761 yards, 5 TD) and Chad Spann (1,239 yards, 20 TD) both a major reason why the Huskies tally of 279 yards per game rushing is 7th-best in the NCAA.

What has separated the Huskies from the rest of the MAC this season has been Harnish’s ability to throw the ball. With nearly 2,000 yards (1,949) and a 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Harnish has proven he is capable of taking advantage of 8- and 9-man fronts designed to stop the Huskies running attack.

Miami’ offense has been run by redshirt freshman Austin Boucher the past few weeks, who has been filling in for Zac Dysert who lacerated his spleen in the Bowling Green game November 10th. Boucher struggled in his first start against a weak Akron team (a 19-14 win), then improved a little (15-of-28, 155 yards, 2 TD) in the victory over Temple, but it’s still a huge question as to what kind of game we’ll see out of the Redhawks on Friday with Boucher behind center.

The Redhawks took advantage of a huge 95-yard touchdown run by Thomas Merriweather to pull away from Temple in the fourth quarter last week, but even without that run Miami was averaging 4.2 yards per carry and was trying to take the pressure off of the young QB by pounding the ball on the ground. They might struggle with that game plan against a Huskies defense that doesn’t look that imposing but finished as the 16th-ranked scoring defense in the country (18.5 ppg).

These two schools didn’t face each other during the regular season this year, which is good for the Redhawks because Northern Illinois has won five straight against them. The last one was a 27-22 victory last year (Miami covered as 10-point underdogs).

Miami has covered in three straight though, and is 7-3 ATS in the head-to-head matchup with the Huskies dating back to the 1985 season.

Miami also has one MAC title in their trophy case, winning the crown in 2003 in a 49-27 win over Bowling Green. The Redhawks have also lost in the title game twice (in 2004 and 2007). Northern Illinois has only played in one MAC title game, losing in 2005 to Akron, 31-30.

Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I must admit I am a little scared by the huge line movement toward Northern Illinois in this game, but I’m also not surprised because I think it should be more. The Huskies are the class of the MAC this season, and while the Redhawks might hang around for a while (1st-half play?), Northern Illinois will pull away and cover even the large number of 17 points.

Pick: Northern Illinois Huskies -17


Illinois Fighting Illini at Fresno State Bulldogs (+5, 57.5)

On Friday, the Fighting Illini of Illinois travel to West to take on the Fresno St. Bulldogs. This is the second consecutive year that these teams have met and if it is anything like last year, it should be a treat. Fresno State edged Illinois 53-52 (no overtime) in one of 2009’s great shootouts. A lot is on the line here. Both teams will probably get into a lower-tier bowl game as things stand now, but a win here could increase either team’s profile for perhaps a better slot.

Fresno has been a difficult team to get a read on this year. You pretty much have to throw form and comparisons out the window with this team. With Nevada, Boise State, and Hawaii atop the WAC, the Bulldogs are the best of the rest of the pack. They lost to those 3 teams, while handling their other WAC opponents with relative ease. The Bulldogs were rolling along rather well, as Nevada needed a 4th-quarter touchdown to notch a come-from-behind win against them. Then, Fresno got blanked 51-0 against a Boise State team that later lost to Nevada. Go figure. Then last Saturday, the Bulldogs needed a last-second score to edge a mediocre Idaho squad.

Illinois is another team that shows flashes of being a very good team, only to sabotage themselves with some bad showings. The Fighting Illini are a perennial Big-Ten doormat that can be a mid-pack team at their best. A 4-4 conference record shows they are somewhere in the middle this year. A 20-point flogging of Penn State and pinning the only defeat on MAC powerhouse Northern Illinois underscored their potential. A loss to 1-9 Minnesota two weeks ago, however, illustrated their issues. To their credit, they bounced back last week with a 3-touchdown win over Northwestern.

Freshman Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has endured his share of growing pains this year. His performances seems to be deteriorating slightly as the season wears on. The bright spot on offense is undeniably running back Mikel LeShoure—with 1380 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Against Northwestern, he ran for an incredible 330 yards on 33 carries. Fresno will have to do well to keep LeShoure from being a big factor in this game. If Illinois doesn’t establish a passing attack, LeShoure might get more attention than he wants.

Fresno State also depends on their productive back—Robbie Rouse. He hurt his ribs in the Idaho game and is listed as questionable against Illinois. One imagines he will play in the final game of the regular season, but his effectiveness may be compromised. To what extent, we will not know until after the game begins. QB Ryan Colburn has also cooled off some. A big part of this game will be about which quarterback can snap out of their second-half slump and put together a big game.

At the end of the day, you have a mid-pack Big-Ten team facing an upper-half WAC team. The urge is to side with the team that has played the tougher opposition, which would be Illinois. Nevertheless, these teams seem to match up very well for what should be a close contest. Last year’s game shows there is little to separate these teams. Both teams’ last several performances offer both promise and concern. It’s difficult to determine where they stand. Fresno State had Nevada on the ropes, which is very impressive. But losing 51-0 to the Broncos and scraping by Idaho was anything but promising. Illinois almost beat Michigan in OT and really put together a clinic against Northwestern. If they were that good, however, why would they lose to lowly Minnesota?

Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a game that could go any number of ways. A 2-touchdown win on either side wouldn’t even make a ripple on the surprise-meter. Illinois could have success running the ball, controlling the clock, and keeping the Bulldogs defense on the field for long stretches. But the Fresno State run defense hasn’t been so bad lately. Maybe they can keep Illinois in check. In a game where it is difficult to pick a winner, let’s take the home team getting points.

Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Friday's Best NBA Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors (N/A)

The Oklahoma City did some serious maturing as a team Wednesday night.

With star player and MVP favorite, Kevin Durant, sitting out with a knee injury, the Thunder buckled down with a solid overall effort, escaping New Jersey with a 123-120 triple-overtime victory against the Nets.

Leading the charge were point guard Russell Westbrook, who put up 38 points, nine assists and 15 rebounds, and forward Jeff Green, who scored 37 points and grabbed five boards in Wednesday’s win.

“You tell your guys, ‘It’s not a time that you feel you have to do more. You just have to do what you do and do it well. Just go in there and do your best.’ That’s been our approach the last two times we played without Kevin and I think the guys have done a really good job with that,” Thunder head coach Scott Brooks told The Oklahoman.

Durant is still day-to-day heading into Friday’s game in Toronto. Oklahoma City is 3-0 SU with a 2-1 ATS record without the standout small forward on the floor. The Thunder are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight meeting with the Raptors.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder


Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers (+16.5, N/A)

All is not right in Tinsel Town.

The defending NBA champs are stumbling, losing four straight games while failing to cover the spread in each of those outings. Los Angeles most recent defeat was a 109-99 loss at the hands of the Houston Rockets Wednesday night.

The blame game is starting to make its rounds, with most fingers pointing at forward Pau Gasol. The talented forward is having to play extra minutes due to the Lakers paper-thin frontcourt and is beginning to wear out. Against the Rockets, Gasol scored only eight points – the first time he’s failed to post double-digits this season – and tweaked an already-tender hamstring.

"What's my concern? My concern is that it doesn't get better, or that it gets worse and it becomes a problem," Gasol told reporters of his injury. "Then we'll really have a problem."

With a dinged-up Gasol and no Andrew Bynum and Theo Ratlif until later in the month, expect opponents to attack the L.A. frontcourt, which now has just two healthy players. The Lakers have split covers in the past four games with the Kings while the road side is 14-3 in the past 17 head-to-head games between these California rivals.

Pick: Sacramento Kings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Best NCAAB Bets

St. Joseph's Hawks at Villanova Wildcats (-19, 144)

If St. Joe's wants to be competitive as it takes a step up against a Big East opponent on Friday, it better hit the boards a lot harder than it did in a Wednesday loss to Drexel.

The Hawks were out-rebounded by the Dragons by an amazing 41-19 margin. St. Joe's grabbed just two offensive rebounds to Drexel's 14.

"From the first tape I watched to the pregame talk, it was, 'Rebound and we'll win the game,'" Hawks' head coach Phil Martelli said. "We didn't rebound, we didn't win the game. It was a real lesson on the backboards, by every one of our guys. There were too many no-shows on possessions for us. Some of that was their physicality, and some was from the noise of being in an opposing gym."

St. Joe's will be in another opposing gym on Friday, this time at Villanova. The Wildcats started the season 5-0 but are coming off a Nov. 26 loss to Tennessee, the only fellow Top 25 team they have faced this season. Villanova has a win over UCLA on its resume.

Pick: St. Josephs Hawks +19


Kansas St. Wildcats at Washington St. Cougars (1, 146.5)

All is well for Kansas State so far this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 and their only loss is to No. 1 Duke. Star guard Jacob Pullen also set the school record for career three-pointers (241) on Monday against Division II Emporia State.

"When his career is over here, he might rewrite that whole record book the way he's going," coach Frank Martin said.

"I didn't hear which record I broke," added Pullen. "I was just happy about the win. I'll deal with all the records and stuff after the season."

Of course, Pullen is not the only one lighting up the box scores for Kansas State so far. The Wildcats scored more than 70 points in their first three outings and they have scored more than 80 in their past two. Their only time scoring fewer than 70 was a 68-point effort against the Blue Devils.

Pick: Kansas State Wildcats

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks (-108, 5.5)

The Blackhawks are playing their second straight home game on Friday night following a six-game road trip. They won three of their last four on the road and maintained the momentum by beating St. Louis 7-5 on Tuesday.

“It was mostly about keeping that momentum that we built on the road,” said Jonathan Toews. "We were happy to get on the board quite a bit, but at the same time we shouldn’t have to score five, six, or seven goals to win a hockey game."

They might not have to because Marty Turco is starting on Friday to give Corey Crawford a rest. Crawford has made three consecutive starts. In his three most recent appearances other than the Tuesday win, he allowed a total of three goals (one in each contest).

Turco, though, has allowed 11 goals in his last two appearances. Going up against a hot Vancouver team could be a bad mix. The Canucks have won three straight and have scored 17 goals in their past three games (13 in their past two and seven on Wednesday).

Pick: Vancouver Canucks


Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (120, 5.5)

The Red Wings are streaking and they are also scoring.

Detroit has won three straight and eight of its last 10. The team has scored at least two goals in 17 of its last 18 games. Four goals were scored on Sunday against Columbus and five were added on Tuesday against San Jose.

A big reason for Detroit's prolific offense is Danny Cleary. He had a goal and an assist in the win over the Sharks to push his season totals to 11 goals and 17 total points in 22 games.

"He's been excellent for us all year, skating real well," noted coach Mike Babcock. "He's healthy, and you can play him with anybody. When you put him on a line, it makes the line better."

Clearly also gives Babcock some flexibility. Although he usually plays on a line with Justin Abdelkader and Jiri Hudler, Cleary skated with Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk on Tuesday. The Ducks will have to be ready for anything.

Pick: Detroit Red Wings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors’ Best Friend (BBF): Friday's Wagering Tips

Lines To Keep An Eye On

Miami-OH opened as a 14.5-point underdog against Northern Illinois, but the Redhawks are now getting 17.5 points.

Weather To Watch

Illinois at Fresno State: There is just a 10 percent chance of rain.

Who’s Hot

NCAAB: UAB is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall.

NHL: The over is 6-1 in the Red Wings' last seven overall.

NBA: The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.

NCAAF: Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 overall and 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.

Who’s Not

NCAAB: Washington State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven against Big 12 opponents.

NHL: The Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last six overall.

NBA: The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.

NCAAF: Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.

Key Stat

41 – Average points per game allowed by the Miami (OH) Redhawks in their four losses this season--to Floria, Missouri, Cincinnati, and Ohio. That could be an issue when they go up against a prolific Northern Illinois offensive attack. The Huskies have eclipsed the 50-point mark four times (against Akron, Toledo, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan) and scored more than 30 points on four other occasions (against Buffalo, Central Michigan, Minnesota, and Temple)

Injuries That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Fresno State running back Robbie Rouse was already dealing with a broken left hand. Then last Saturday against Idaho he suffered a rib injury. Rouse, who has 1097 yards and eight touchdowns on 191 carries, is not expected to play on Friday when the Bulldogs host Illinois. Fresno State could also be without wide receiver Rashad Evans (30 catches, 335 yards, 3 TDs), who is questionable with a leg problem.

Biggest Games On The Slate

MAC Championship: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) (17.5, 55)

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

Notable Quotable

"Whatever we're going through, it's probably good for us. It humbles you. We're down to earth and understand that we can lose games if we don't play basketball the right way and do all the little things we need to do as a group collectively. Being humbled is good. It's good to use life lessons in life. We hope we can learn from it." -- Lamar Odom after the Lakers lost their fourth straight game to Houston on Wednesday. They will look to end the slide against Sacramento on Friday night.

Tips And Notes

Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann was named MAC Player of the Year on Wednesday heading into Friday's conference championship against Miami (OH) on Friday at Ford Field in Detroit. Spann has rushed 226 times for 1239 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. The Huskies have won nine in a row and have averaged a ridiculous 65 points in their last three wins over Toledo, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan.

Montreal Canadiens' rookie defenseman P.K. Subban was a healthy scratch on Thursday against the New Jersey Devils. He was replaced in the lineup by Yannick Weber. Subban is having a solid season with one goal, eight assists, 27 penalty minutes, and a +5 plus/minus rating. However, he was burned for goals twice by the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday. Montreal's next game is on Saturday at home against San Jose.

Only six games in, Georgia's basketball team has already had an up-and-down season. That's not to be unexpected with star power forward Trey Thompkins dealing with an ankle injury. The Bulldogs won three straight to start the season, then lost two in a row when Thompkins made his return. But the 'Dogs beat Manhattan 61-58 last Sunday and Thompkins scored 18 points while pulling down eight boards. "That Manhattan win was one we needed just to get out of the sort of a daze we were in as a team," said Thompkins, whose team is going up against UAB on Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

CFB FRIDAY NIGHT WINNER
10* Illinois Illini/Fresno State Bulldogs OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS

$1000* Northern Illinois @ Miami - OVER 54.5
$500* Kansas State pk @ Washington State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Statsystems cfb report 12/3

STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/3
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________


***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****

*** MAC CHAMPIONSHIP - FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI ***

MIAMI OHIO vs. N ILLINOIS
Kickoff: Friday, 7: 00 p.m. EDT Line: -17.5, O/U 54.5
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The 24th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies will play in their second Mid-American Conference Championship when they battle the Miami-Ohio RedHawks at Ford Field. The series between the Huskies and RedHawks is currently knotted at seven games apiece, but Northern Illinois has dominated Miami-Ohio over the past few seasons, winning five consecutive matchups, including a 27-22 decision this past season.

This incredible run for Northern Illinois continues to get better, as the team was recently place in the Top 25 for the first time since 2003. However, Coach Jerry Kill realizes why it is a great honor, his team must also be focus on the task at hand and that is winning the MAC title game. "It's good for our school and good for our football program, and this Friday we'll see if we're worthy of it," Kill said. "We've done a nice job, so far, but those are the key words - so far."

The Huskies are definitely worthy of the 24th spot in the rankings, having won 10 of their 12 matchups, including a nine-game winning streak, which the team carries in this contest. NIU finished the regular season a perfect 8-0 in league action, earning a spot in this matchup for the first time since 2005, and with one more win NIU will claim this league's top achievement for the first time since 1983.

As for the RedHawks, they have flown under the radar all season, and where not really even in the discussion for the division title, as most believed it would come down to either Ohio or Temple. However, Miami-Ohio played its game and won its last four matchups. The RedHawks closed out its regular season with a 23-3 victory over Temple, but for the team from Oxford to get to this point they still needed Ohio to loss to Kent State, and that is exactly what happened, pushing Miami-Ohio into its first league title game since 2007.

The Huskies set a school-record for points scored in a year and a large reason for that is because the team tallied 65, 59 and 71 over its last three games. In the 71-point effort against Eastern Michigan, the Huskies used their ground game, as the team rumbled for 544 yards and eight touchdowns. Since the Huskies were on cruise control there were a few players that saw more action than they are used to seeing, such as Jordan Lynch, who led the ground game with 142 yards and two scores. Jasmin Hopkins added 104 yards and one scores, while backup quarterback DeMarcus Grady rumbled for 91 yards and two scores as well.

As for Chad Spann, the team's best running back, he rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns on just seven carries. Chandler Harnish, the team's starting quarterback, he finished with 101 yards and two scores through the air. The Huskies have relied heavily on the run throughout the season, so they have not needed Harnish to lead the way, but still the signal caller has managed to throw for 17 touchdowns, while tossing only five interceptions. He has also added 761 yards and five mores scored on the ground for NIU, which as a team is averaging 279.2 ypg via the run. Leading the way has been Spann, who has rumbled for 1,239 yards, while scoring 20 of the team's 38 rushing TDs.

Since the offense controlled the ball for a little under 40 minutes against Eastern Michigan, the defense did not spend much time on the field, but when called to duty this unit answered, allowing just three points to the Eagles, while holding the much weaker opponent to just 160 total yards. This unit has done a terrific job throughout the season, and is currently holding opponents to just 18.5 ppg. NIU did surrender over 100 rushing yards to Eastern Michigan, and if there is one weak spot for this defense it is in that area, as opponents are churning out 133.2 ypg against this unit, while also scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground against the Huskies.

The RedHawks needed to win the last time they were on the field, and did just that, beating Temple by 20 points. The offense, which has been erratic at times this year, pulverized the Owls on the ground, rushing for 253 yards on 6.7 yards per attempt. Thomas Merriweather had one of his better games on the season, pouncing on Temple for 182 yards on just 22 carries. Austin Boucher, who is still filling in for the injured Zac Dysert, was able to manage the game well, throwing for 155 yards, and even tossed two touchdowns. It is unlikely Dysert (13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) will be on the field Friday, so Boucher will have to continue to perform well in these pressure contests.

He will benefit from having the receiving tandem of Armand Robinson and Nick Harwell. The two wideouts have combined for 128 receptions, 1,624 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, what would really make Boucher comfortable is continued success from the ground game, but that might be asking too much. Miami-Ohio is posting just 96.6 ypg on the ground, and although Merriweather came close to totaling 200 yards against Temple, the tailback has tallied just 736 yards and eight scores in 12 games.

In the biggest game of the season, the RedHawks stepped up not only offensively, but also put forth an impressive defensive showing against Temple. Granted, the Owls were without their best offensive weapon in Bernard Pierce, but they were still a force without him, but not against Miami-Ohio, which held the Owls to just 70 rushing yards on 2.5 ypc. The defense also did a solid job against the pass, holding Temple to just 145 yards, while collecting two interceptions.

Miami-Ohio forced four turnovers in the win, and also limited the Owls to only 2-of-13 on third down attempts. Making big plays have been a key to the success of this unit, which is allowing 23.6 ppg. Miami-Ohio has collected 29 takeaways on the season, while recording 29 sacks as well. The RedHawks are only allowing 123.8 ypg on 3.9 yards per carry this year, but this will without question be their toughest test against the run.

• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
The Nation’s most improved team Miami Ohio takes on the country’s pointspread champs Northern Illinois in Motown with the MAC title on the line. The job second-year HC Michael Haywood has done with the RedHawks (from 1-11 to 8-4) has been as impressive as their current 4-0 SU and ATS run. That streak will certainly be tested tonight as the Huskies enter on a 9-0-1 ATS streak of their own. In fact, the only time the sled dogs surrendered the money this year was in their season-opener at Iowa State.

We understand you’re hesitance in walking in front of a Northern Illinois squad that is averaging over 64 PPG in its last three tussles, but let us guide you every step of the way. While Huskies’ Field General Jerry Kill plays bully to .500 or less opposition (19-5 SU, 15-5-1 ATS), he’s just 2-8 SU and ATS against .500 or greater foes his own size. NIU’s recent 5-0 SU series mark sure looks enticing, but their 0-3 ATS record when laying double-digits in those meetings doesn’t quite pay the rent.

And let’s not forget about the Huskies’ lone appearance in this championship game in 2005 when they lost, 31-30, to Akron as 13-point favorites. While we realize that the RedHawks are just 1-2 SU and ATS in their three title tilts, our trustworthy database points out that: sub .750 teams in Championship games are 16-9 ATS, including 12-4 ATS versus a foe off a SU and ATS win.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - N Illinois by 18; O/U 51
*STAN'S POWER LINE - N Illinois -20
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - N Illinois -21.69
___________________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 46.2, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 4*)

--N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 47.8, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 39.3, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--MIAMI OHIO is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 23.6, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--MIAMI OHIO is 5-19 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 24.4, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--N ILLINOIS is 24-8 UNDER (+15.3 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 25.3, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--N ILLINOIS is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 24.7, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--MIAMI OHIO is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 20.1, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 2*)

--MIAMI OHIO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 19.1, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--N ILLINOIS is 13-30 against the 1rst half line (-20.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 14.7, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--N ILLINOIS is 3-15 against the 1rst half line (-13.2 Units) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 13.0, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--N ILLINOIS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 21.8, OPPONENT 10.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--N ILLINOIS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 21.9, OPPONENT 11.3 - (Rating = 4*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI OHIO) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games.
(26-6 since 1992.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 52.9
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 22.6 (Total points scored = 42.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (65.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).

--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line (MIAMI OHIO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent.
(45-17 since 1992.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.7, Opponent 14.8 (Average first half point differential = -6.1)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (26-9).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STATSYSTEMS CFB REPORT 12/3 cont.

*** ILLINOIS @ FRESNO ST ***
Kickoff: Friday, 10:15 p.m. EDT Line: -5.5, O/U 57
-----------------------------------------------------
Illinois closes out its regular season out in California, as the Fighting Illini take on the Fresno State Bulldogs this Friday night at Bulldog Stadium. Last year these two schools collided for the first-time ever, and it was a memorable meeting, as the Bulldogs grabbed a thrilling, 53-52 decision over the Illini in Champaign.

The Illini were not on the field this past weekend, but the last time the team was in action, Illinois defeated Northwestern, 48-27, at Wrigley Field. The win snapped a two-game slide for Illinois, and also helped the team gain bowl eligibility. It is the first time the Illini will have a chance to play in a bowl since losing to USC, 49-17, in the 2007 Rose Bowl. As for the Bulldogs, they also snapped a minor two-game slide this past weekend by defeating Idaho, 23-20, at home. It was the seventh win on the year for Fresno State, and the fourth victory on its home field. With the seven total wins, the Bulldogs are eligible for a bowl game for the fourth straight season.

The offense for Illinois has really picked up steam over its past five games, averaging an outstanding 46.8 ppg. The improvement of this unit was evident in the team's victory over Northwestern, as the Illini totaled 48 points behind 559 total yards. However, the majority of the damage was done on the ground, as Illinois punished the Wildcats for 519 yards and five scores. Most of the work was done by Mikel Leshoure, who was recently tabbed for the All-Big Ten First Team. Leshoure rushed for 330 yards and two touchdowns in the victory, and now has 1,371 yards on the season, to go along with 13 scores via the run. Since Illinois had such an easy time pounding the ball against Northwestern, Nathan Scheelhaase was not called upon often, as the quarterback finished with just 40 yards and one touchdown through the air. However, the signal caller for Illinois has been consistent when needed and comes into this game with 16 touchdowns, against just eight interceptions.

The defense was not as consistent as the offense in the win over Northwestern, but the unit stepped up when it mattered most. Coach Ron Zook's defense surrendered 24 points in the first half, but held the Wildcat to just three over the final two quarters. The biggest issue in the matchup was the Illini's inability to stop the run, as Northwestern rumbled for 183 yards and two touchdowns. However, Illinois was able to combat those numbers by forcing three turnovers, and holding the Wildcats to just 2-of-10 on third downs. On the season, this unit has been mediocre at best, and while it has had its strong moment, it has also been a let down. Through 11 games opponents are racking up 137.8 ypg via the run against Illinois, but what has helped this unit throughout the season and in the win over Northwestern is its ability to force mistakes, as the defense has 24 takeaways to its credit.

The Bulldogs might have been victorious this past weekend, but the offense for Fresno State was not very impressive. The Bulldogs found the end zone just once offensively, and were held to just 371 total yards, while committing four turnovers. The lone score came from A.J. Ellis, who found the end zone via the run and finished with 55 yards on 11 carries, while Robbie Rouse paced the team with 83 yards on 12 totes. Ryan Colburn did all he could under center, as the quarterback overcame five sacks to finish with 219 yards on 21-of-33 passing. It clearly was not the best showing on the year for Rouse or Colburn, but the tandem have done quite well this season in leading the Bulldogs. Rouse is currently pacing the ground game with 1,097 yards and eight scores, while Colburn has thrown for 2,225 yards and 18 touchdowns, and has also completed 61.1 percent of his passes.

Despite the offense's inability to hold on to the football, or its lack of scoring, Fresno State was still victorious against Idaho because of the play of the defense. The Bulldogs held Idaho to just 13 rushing yards in the win, and despite giving up 197 yards through the air, Fresno State collected an interception and recorded six sacks. It was one of the better performances for Fresno State against the run, as the team enters this weekend allowing 139.9 ypg on the ground, while also surrendered 20 rushing touchdowns. This unit has benefited from 33 sacks this season, but at the same time the defense for Fresno State has lacked big play ability and comes into this game with just 13 takeaways.

• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
A scheduling oddity finds the Illini and Bulldogs closing out their regular seasons for a second straight year. With both teams figuring to have secured minor bowl bids, this game takes on one of the meaningless variety. However, if it’s anything like last season’s 53-52 Fresno State win, then the fans in Bulldog Stadium should be in for an entertaining evening.

Despite closing out a disappointing 2009 campaign (3-9), Zook’s crooks obviously gave the Bulldogs all they could handle last season, even winning the yardage battle, 548-416. However, we’re not anxious to lay points on the road with the beleaguered Illini head coach and his 6-22 ATS mark as a favorite of 10 or less points. And despite Fresno’s 8-2 SU record in Last Home Games this past decade, we’re not willing to challenge HC Pat Hill’s 12-21-1 ATS log at home off an ATS loss. "With conflicting trends, we’ll let you make the call!"

*STAN'S FORECASTER - Illinois by 4.5; O/U 60.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Illinois -6.6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Illinois -6.79
___________________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--FRESNO ST is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 29.3, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 4*)

--FRESNO ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 32.5, OPPONENT 36.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--ILLINOIS is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 21.9, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--FRESNO ST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 32.4, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--FRESNO ST is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
The average score was FRESNO ST 35.5, OPPONENT 35.8 - (Rating = 2*)

--ILLINOIS is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 45.9, OPPONENT 29.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--ILLINOIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.
The average score was ILLINOIS 44.5, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--FRESNO ST is 10-22 against the 1rst half line (-14.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 14.9, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--ILLINOIS is 6-19 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 9.0, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--FRESNO ST is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 17.6, OPPONENT 13.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--ILLINOIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 16.7, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ILLINOIS) - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games.
(30-8 since 1992.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 58.9
The average score in these games was: Team 34.9, Opponent 33.2 (Total points scored = 68.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (27-7).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
560- 405 run 58 %

Bonus Play FRI UAB + 4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Friday

Magic -6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 806-201 (.800)
ATS: 289-301 (.490)
ATS Vary Units: 1151-1157 (.499)
Over/Under: 259-282 (.479)
Over/Under Vary Units: 437-523 (.455)

Basketball Travelers Classic
Round Robin at Moscow, ID
Eastern Michigan 66, Monmouth 58
IDAHO 79, North Dakota 58
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
IONA 68, Canisius 61
New Hampshire 74, MARIST 61
Non-Conference
CONNECTICUT 91, Umbc 53
GEORGIA 66, Uab 65
Kansas State 76, WASHINGTON STATE 69
MONTANA 67, Portland 66
VILLANOVA 83, Saint Joseph's 66

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 168-91 (.649)
ATS: 149-114 (.567)
ATS Vary Units: 418-353 (.542)
Over/Under: 122-149 (.450)
Over/Under Vary Units: 168-191 (.468)

CHARLOTTE 97, New Jersey 88
Oklahoma City 105, TORONTO 104
Portland 98, WASHINGTON 93
ATLANTA 102, Philadelphia 92
Orlando 98, DETROIT 89
BOSTON 99, Chicago 91
MEMPHIS 108, Houston 102
NEW ORLEANS 108, New York 100
SAN ANTONIO 113, Minnesota 93
DENVER 113, L.A. Clippers 96
PHOENIX 113, Indiana 105
UTAH 102, Dallas 98
L.A. LAKERS 110, Sacramento 91

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 116-80 (.592)

N.Y. RANGERS 4, N.Y. Islanders 2
Colorado vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BUFFALO 3, Columbus 2
MINNESOTA 3, Calgary 2
CHICAGO 4, Vancouver 3
Detroit vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

[JMEYERS]

HRC PREMIUM NCAA FOOTBALL ACTION-December 3rd

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[305] Illinois |5*|-5.5|B+0|ESPN2|10:15 pm EST


note*
This is the "ME (Matchup Edge) System"



National Football Association & NCAAF (55%) +35.25 units
2010/2011 30-26-1 54% |In Season| NFL
2010/2011 32-24-2 57% |In Season| NCAAF

 

[JMEYERS]

HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-December 3rd

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[04] NY Rangers |8*|Bet B|-200|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST

[10] Chicago |5*|Bet A|-120|B+0|Network N/A|8:35 pm EST


note*
This is the "NHL Spread System" (3 game chase)



2010/2011 NHL SYSTEMS




NHL Spread LOSSES- 1

A. 7 wins

B. 5 wins

C. 2 wins



NHL Tops LOSSES- 0

A. 3 wins

B.

C.